Is solar cycle 24 running late???  

Article Updated with new information on 3 October 2008

In this picture ......

Cycle #24's FIRST Sunspot

taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory(SOHO).

       Shows the First sunspot of Cycle 24, as it IS the correct orientation and location on the sun.... THIS IS HOW all cycles start, even though this sunspot was small and of VERY short duration.

        This image taken (9-13-08), shows the newest sunspot of the cycle, again it is VERY small and the duration is expected to be VERY short (it may not last until it is supposed to pass beyond the limb of the sun.). update 9-18-08, It's gone and the ss number remains 0 (was zero even on the day the last one appeared isn't that weird?)

Picture from 9-18-08

        As to the current number of days that have been spotless, we are about the average for the recorded cycles (High average but still within the norm) the Longest solar minimums have been:

        The Sporer Minimum Identified only by carbon dating and study of tree rings occurred during the years from 1420 to 1570 (dates disputed).

       The Maunder Minimum lasting from 1645 until 1715  a total of 70 years. The longest that the scientific community have been able to identify so far. This minimum directly coincided with the little ice age, which kept Europe and North America in the cold, and indirectly may have contributed to the dark ages. During this whole period of 70 years the sunspot number averaged 0.71(yes less than 1) as there were only 50 identified sunspots during this whole episode of solar history.  Other theories on the little ice age also include an increase in Volcanic activity and possibly a breakdown in the Atlantic conveyor, or possibly ALL THREE.

        The Dalton Minimum from 1790 - 1830 (40 years)  and was responsible for things like the Thames river in England freezing over as well as New York Harbor, and lead to things like the song White Christmas.  Though having occurred essentially during MODERN history less is known about the possible causes and influences of this one.

The Wolf Minimum (little is clearly known about it) from 1280 - 1340, followed IMMEDIATELY by Europe's 'Black Death' (Bubonic Plague), and probably was an influence in it's spread as people were still of the mindset to stay indoors.

The OORT Minimum 1010 - 1050 Immediately precedeed the middle ages warm spell, that lead to many improvements in civilizations, othersise there is nearly no information available on it.

        All had LONG (see the dates) periods of no sunspots (or maybe smaller than normal sunspots), which may have been the cause of much cooler earth tempuratures, then again there may be more to it.  (more further down the page)

       The Current solar Minimum which some people (tongue in cheek) have started calling the Gore Minimum, has lasted only about 1/2 or less as long as the 1930's minimum which did include some cooling and increase in white precipitation.

       To be even statistically, too long we need to go at least anotherr 120 +\- days without any sunspots.

       Currently the size of the sunspots seem to be on the size that were observed by Galileo Galilei, his observations of the sun (which DID damage his eyes) just prior to the Maunder Minimum. It is NOW theorized that during all the noted minimums sunspots DID occur but were VERY small and of very short duration! Sound Familiar ???.

       So far all appears to be falling in line with the NEW prediction for cycle #24 (originally it was given a VERY high rating) but now some are saying that even if it begins to ramp up it may not be as good as the last (#23).

       There are also some new emerging theories (probably partially spurious) about a slowdown in the Solar conveyors, which transport the sunspots around and across the sun, these lead to 'popular' rather than scientific theories that the NEXT (#25) solar cycle may be VERY slow to start and have minimum sunspots. So far all information appears to be just more of the same (pure hype), as of Now we are NOT in a longer than normal duration for Solar Minimum. This may occur for the NEXT sunspot cycle, as already it is being identified as possibly as low in sunspot activity as occured in the 1940's.

       Then again there is also the fact that we can now measure things that just 5 years ago we were unable to measure or if we could measure them the current systems are an ?improvement? or more sensitive than those in the past (but then again that's how it all works!) as our systems increase in power and definition exponentially not numerically. This increase in the ability to measure the solar activity MAY actually mean something but for now EXPECT the Current solar cycle (#24) to be just as predicted.

       Emerging discussions also have been noting that during a solar minimum (of any sort, be it long or short) that there is (mainly due to a decrease in solar wind), an Increase of Galactic Cosmic Rays which are able to pass through the atmosphere. These may lead to MORE, COOLER, with MORE REFLICTIVE clouds over the oceans reducing  the Sun's rays that get through to the ocean, as the oceans are more effected by GCR, as the land area already has it's own sources of energetic radiation (NOT SUPPLIED BY THE SUN).

       We are going to just wait and see! I know in this time of INSTANT information and Gratification, many feel that this IS the start of a significant EVENT, and truly it may be but then again it may not....

As of this time it just looks like MAYBE THE 'BRAINS' HAVE DECIDED THAT THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE CURRENT MINIMUM!!!

See this newer article on our site

Tim

KC0TNH