RE-update on Solar Cycle 24 activity and about Solar minimums

        The Sporer Minimum Identified only by carbon dating and study of tree rings occurred during the years from 1420 to 1570 (dates disputed).

       The Maunder Minimum lasting from 1645 until 1715  a total of 70 years. The longest that the scientific community have been able to identify so far. This minimum directly coincided with the little ice age, which kept Europe and North America in the cold, and indirectly may have contributed to the dark ages. During this whole period of 70 years the sunspot number averaged 0.71(yes less than 1) as there were only 50 identified sunspots during this whole episode of solar history.  Other theories on the little ice age also include an increase in Volcanic activity and possibly a breakdown in the Atlantic conveyor, or possibly ALL THREE.

        The Dalton Minimum from 1790 - 1830 (40 years)  and was responsible for things like the Thames river in England freezing over as well as New York Harbor, and lead to things like the song White Christmas.  Though having occurred essentially during MODERN history less is known about the possible causes and influences of this one.

The Wolf Minimum (little is clearly known about it) from 1280 - 1340, followed IMMEDIATELY by Europe's 'Black Death' (Bubonic Plague), and probably was an influence in it's spread as people were still of the mindset to stay indoors.

The OORT Minimum 1010 - 1050 Immediately precedeed the middle ages warm spell, that lead to many improvements in civilizations, othersise there is nearly no information available on it.

        All had LONG (see the dates) periods of no sunspots (or maybe smaller than normal sunspots), which may have been the cause of much cooler earth tempuratures, then again there may be more to it.  (more further down the page)

       The Current solar Minimum which some people (tongue in cheek) have started calling the Gore Minimum, has lasted only about 1/2 or less as long as the 1930's minimum which did include some cooling and increase in white precipitation.

       To be even statistically, too long we need to go at least anotherr 120 +\- days without any sunspots.

       Currently the size of the sunspots seem to be on the size that were observed by Galileo Galilei, his observations of the sun (which DID damage his eyes) just prior to the Maunder Minimum. It is NOW theorized that during all the noted minimums sunspots DID occur but were VERY small and of very short duration! Sound Familiar ???.

       So far all appears to be falling in line with the NEW prediction for cycle #24 (originally it was given a VERY high rating) but now some are saying that even if it begins to ramp up it may not be as good as the last (#23).

       There are also some new information about a slowdown in the Solar conveyors, which transport the sunspots around and across the sun,this has lead to theories that the NEXT (#25) solar cycle may be VERY slow to start and have minimal sunspots.

      So far all information appears to be just more of the same (pure hype), and as of Now we are NOT in a longer than normal duration for Solar Minimum.

Yet this may occur for the NEXT sunspot cycle, as already it is being identified as possibly as low in sunspot activity as occured in the 1940's.

       Then again there is also the fact that we can now measure things that just 5 years ago we were unable to measure, and are an ?improvement? or more sensitive than those in the past as our systems increase in power and definition exponentially not numerically. This increase in the ability to measure the solar activity MAY actually mean something but for now EXPECT the Current solar cycle (#24) to be just as predicted.

       Emerging discussions also have been noting that there is (mainly due to a decrease in solar wind), an Increase of Galactic Cosmic Rays which are able to pass through the atmosphere which may (according to new theories) lead to MORE, COOLER Days with MORE REFLECTIVE clouds over the oceans, thus reducing the Sun's rays that get through to the ocean and reducing evaporation from the same, as the oceans evaporate more readily under the influence of GCR, whereas the land area already has it's own sources of energetic radiation (NOT SUPPLIED BY THE SUN {human created sources, and natural radioactive / thermal sources}).

       We are going to just wait and see! I know in this time of INSTANT information and Gratification, many feel that this IS the start of a significant EVENT, but has been proven that the later models were correct and the cycle may still reach the heights that were initially predicted.

  As of February 2009 the Solar cycle seems to be on Track with Dr. Hathaway's 'Current' predicitions for it. we have begun to see some new sunspots and coronal holes that 'may have' actually increased  / aided SOME hf communications. but then again it IS the time of year (there are 2 ... June and February) when Sporadic E DOES occur and effect communications.

Tim

KC0TNH